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Trends in Engineering and IT Enrollments
Supply of engineering and IT talent is a key concern for major US companies. This high-level analysis shows declining enrollments in key areas. A brief list of potential solutions is also presented.
This analysis was done in early 2006. It probably needs to be refreshed in the next year or so.
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Document Transcript:
Trends in Engineering & IT
Enrollments
Talent Supply Snapshot (2006)
Brian McCurry
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.Overview
"This document provides a brief overview of enrollment trends in IT and
Engineering disciplines in the US
"It covers:
" Enrollment trends
" Factors behind the trends
" Actions taken by major employers
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
1Mixed Trends In Engineering Overall
"There has been an overall increase in undergraduate and graduateengineering
enrollments over last 5+ years
"Enrollments seem to have peaked; Expected to start declining in the next ~2 years
"Mixed picture across disciplines, with some disciplines declining and others growing, as
shown below:
Significant/ short- Ongoing/ gradual
Growth term decline decline
Bioengineering
Computer engg. Chemical
Biomedical
Computer science Agricultural
Aerospace
Mining
Civil Geological
Electrical Mineral
Mechanical
Marine
Nuclear
Engineering mgmt
Source: Engineering
Workforce Commission
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
2Strong Decline In Computer Science And
Engineering
First-Year Enrollments in Computer-related
fields
25,000
Very strong growth in late 90s
and early 2000s . . . +102% -36%
20,000
Computer science and engineering
accounted for 71% of the growth in total
engineering degrees in the late 90s/ early 15,000
2000s
. . . Is turning into a strong 10,000
decline:
First-year enrollments started declining in 5,000
2001
Degrees awarded are leveling out; expected
-
to start declining in ~2006-2007 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Source: Engineering Workforce Commission
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
3Reasons For Decline
Dot-com/ technology bust
" Only 4 -5 years old; hence still fresh in peoples minds
" Many college freshmen were entering high school at the time
IT jobs growing at a moderate rate
" Major IT companies (Microsoft, IBM, Dell, Cisco, Oracle) are growing much more
slowly
" Total corporate IT spend is up, but largely earmarked for equipment and
outsourcing
" IT jobs predicted to grow at ~3% through 2008
Offshoring
" Popular perception: Why choose a career where your job is likely to be
offshored?
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
4Reasons For Decline (continued)
Gender shifts and preferences
" Women as a % of enrollments have grown steadily to about ~20% offirst-year
enrollments
" Women are increasingly selecting these disciplines: Bio-engineering/ Bio-medical,
Chemical, Environmental, Industrial and Materials.
" Womens enrollment in computer-related disciplines grew rapidly in the late 90s
and now leveled off
Social changes
" Search for more relevant careers, especially post 9-11 and ongoing geopolitical
conflicts
" Ubiquity of technology : dont need to know IT, to use IT
Competing careers
" Talent shortages lead to increasing wages and benefits in many areas, ranging
from accounting to government to energy
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
5Similar Trends In Certain European
Countries; But Asia Is Different
Western European countries seem to be facing similar problems
" Computer science enrollments declined 5 20% in UK, Netherlands and Germany
from 2001-2005
" France is an exception enrollments are flat to slightly up, but number of
applicants is declining
Trends in Asia are mixed
" Japan faces similar demographic issues
" China & India continue to enroll very large and increasing numbers of
engineers*; however only 10 30% are estimated to have relevant skills for global
companies
* Data on enrollments in China & India varies by upto 400% (depending on the source used), and hence is not quoted.
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
6What Are Major Employers Doing About
This Issue?
Most major companies including Fortune 100 companies do not
have a robust, long-term talent forecasting system. However, some that
are particularly sensitive to engineer shortages are adopting some
combination of the following:
Further outsourcing and offshoring
" Outsourcing logic: let someone else manage the talent issues
" Offshoring logic: go where the talent is
Offshoring continues to grow rapidly, is moving up the value chain and being adopted by
mid-market and even smaller companies
In the long term, it may compound the talent problem; however, seen as a critical business
strategy
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
7What Are Major Employers Doing About
This Issue?
Delaying retirement of current employees
" More prevalent in selected industries that have older workforces(e.g. energy,
healthcare, utilities)
Increased investment in learning & development
" Allows new employees to get on board quickly
" Enables skill building; employees can contribute in multiple areas
" Enables better retention of current employees
Business-education partnerships to promote science and technology
education
" National/system focus (e.g. Gates Foundation, Intel, IBM), or local school/ college
level focus (e.g. Texas Instruments, Dell)
Re-focus workforce on new skills
" Focus in-house employees on project/ vendor management, architecture, business
analysis etc. which require fewer numbers of more senior/ strategic employees
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
8
Enrollments
Talent Supply Snapshot (2006)
Brian McCurry
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.Overview
"This document provides a brief overview of enrollment trends in IT and
Engineering disciplines in the US
"It covers:
" Enrollment trends
" Factors behind the trends
" Actions taken by major employers
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
1Mixed Trends In Engineering Overall
"There has been an overall increase in undergraduate and graduateengineering
enrollments over last 5+ years
"Enrollments seem to have peaked; Expected to start declining in the next ~2 years
"Mixed picture across disciplines, with some disciplines declining and others growing, as
shown below:
Significant/ short- Ongoing/ gradual
Growth term decline decline
Bioengineering
Computer engg. Chemical
Biomedical
Computer science Agricultural
Aerospace
Mining
Civil Geological
Electrical Mineral
Mechanical
Marine
Nuclear
Engineering mgmt
Source: Engineering
Workforce Commission
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
2Strong Decline In Computer Science And
Engineering
First-Year Enrollments in Computer-related
fields
25,000
Very strong growth in late 90s
and early 2000s . . . +102% -36%
20,000
Computer science and engineering
accounted for 71% of the growth in total
engineering degrees in the late 90s/ early 15,000
2000s
. . . Is turning into a strong 10,000
decline:
First-year enrollments started declining in 5,000
2001
Degrees awarded are leveling out; expected
-
to start declining in ~2006-2007 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Source: Engineering Workforce Commission
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
3Reasons For Decline
Dot-com/ technology bust
" Only 4 -5 years old; hence still fresh in peoples minds
" Many college freshmen were entering high school at the time
IT jobs growing at a moderate rate
" Major IT companies (Microsoft, IBM, Dell, Cisco, Oracle) are growing much more
slowly
" Total corporate IT spend is up, but largely earmarked for equipment and
outsourcing
" IT jobs predicted to grow at ~3% through 2008
Offshoring
" Popular perception: Why choose a career where your job is likely to be
offshored?
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
4Reasons For Decline (continued)
Gender shifts and preferences
" Women as a % of enrollments have grown steadily to about ~20% offirst-year
enrollments
" Women are increasingly selecting these disciplines: Bio-engineering/ Bio-medical,
Chemical, Environmental, Industrial and Materials.
" Womens enrollment in computer-related disciplines grew rapidly in the late 90s
and now leveled off
Social changes
" Search for more relevant careers, especially post 9-11 and ongoing geopolitical
conflicts
" Ubiquity of technology : dont need to know IT, to use IT
Competing careers
" Talent shortages lead to increasing wages and benefits in many areas, ranging
from accounting to government to energy
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
5Similar Trends In Certain European
Countries; But Asia Is Different
Western European countries seem to be facing similar problems
" Computer science enrollments declined 5 20% in UK, Netherlands and Germany
from 2001-2005
" France is an exception enrollments are flat to slightly up, but number of
applicants is declining
Trends in Asia are mixed
" Japan faces similar demographic issues
" China & India continue to enroll very large and increasing numbers of
engineers*; however only 10 30% are estimated to have relevant skills for global
companies
* Data on enrollments in China & India varies by upto 400% (depending on the source used), and hence is not quoted.
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
6What Are Major Employers Doing About
This Issue?
Most major companies including Fortune 100 companies do not
have a robust, long-term talent forecasting system. However, some that
are particularly sensitive to engineer shortages are adopting some
combination of the following:
Further outsourcing and offshoring
" Outsourcing logic: let someone else manage the talent issues
" Offshoring logic: go where the talent is
Offshoring continues to grow rapidly, is moving up the value chain and being adopted by
mid-market and even smaller companies
In the long term, it may compound the talent problem; however, seen as a critical business
strategy
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
7What Are Major Employers Doing About
This Issue?
Delaying retirement of current employees
" More prevalent in selected industries that have older workforces(e.g. energy,
healthcare, utilities)
Increased investment in learning & development
" Allows new employees to get on board quickly
" Enables skill building; employees can contribute in multiple areas
" Enables better retention of current employees
Business-education partnerships to promote science and technology
education
" National/system focus (e.g. Gates Foundation, Intel, IBM), or local school/ college
level focus (e.g. Texas Instruments, Dell)
Re-focus workforce on new skills
" Focus in-house employees on project/ vendor management, architecture, business
analysis etc. which require fewer numbers of more senior/ strategic employees
©Brian McCurry. All rights reserved.
8
