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Why Statistics Kill Innovation...And What You Can Learn From Vegas Card Counters
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Why Statistics Kill Innovation
And What You Can Learn From Vegas Card Counters
S S
WHICH WILL HELP YOUR BUSINESS BE MORE The Value of Non-Customers
– --- '-ë O - " "-æ ' - "-
- –"ä
U –" --–-
T '- '–"
-' –-–" ä T ' " "Being normal is
' - - –-'" ' ï not a virtue; it
- - ädenotes a lack of
P"'- - " '–-" V '
O" " courage"
- ' – T "æ
- Anonymous
- æ
- W
I '– - -' - á – --- ä I '– -
–- –- -
-' á – '"'-
- -' -" - ä I '– '–
'' –"- " "' -á '–
Statistics and Incremental Innovation
''''"-–- ò '-' -
B " " – --- -
' " –-" ' - " –-–"ä
T '-' '– "
' ''
'-–'– -–"ä T - - B–æ"
"There are lies,
T' D''"-ï
'"'- -" DVDä
damned lies, and
Competing on Analytics
statistics" O " -æ ' - –" "
- C
Mark Twain - -'' – Y
R-'' M
'"'– - -''
HCRMI -
'' - - ' - Aá
T -- -" '" -
'– " '"' '- -" --- '
--" 'ä B–- '- "– -
'" '"-' B " - "--
' -'ä
''''"-–- ' '-– '-' I
I '– " "– –"á '– " '"'
' ò 'ó '–" ' '–
-" '"- " - –- T
- –-' '–" ' " Q-
'– - -' -" – -á -
' - '"'– - ' -' -"
'-" '--
PC "' -
B " ' '" ''- - "
-" ' YOUR
æ ''–-"ä
T " -
T -
' - -
- - - '–- -
T
- F' – "'–'á
–"á -" "-'
'"'-á
-" - "–
- '-'
–ä S '-- C'' "' I-–- á òF'" "
W '– ' ' '" -' - " '
' ' '"- -- ''
"- ä
C S S A R R '-'ä I'W S K IA W Y C L F V C C
'äó W –" ' –- -' 'ä Y'– - - '–-
B - '- –- 'H M -'ä ' K '"
'"' -I - - -
"Failures are
Probability and Innovation 'æ"á 'æ '
valuable negative
I --- æ" '-' ' ''"- '- '" á
information"
'
B ' - Dr. Robert Goddard
P- - -- "- "– -
- I - - -– – H I -
T ' ' ' " "- -- ' ' '"'ä B–- '– " '- -
– '–- " -' - '–ä T '– ' -
- ' M H K I - –"- --
B–- ' '– '" - -'–- – -
'–" '"- '-- -–"ële arnT Y ' - ' - '"' - '
ä Y'– ' - '-" M H" M "
as you goä T " '–- -'ä
'"' -Iä O - á '– -- "
L '-" --- æ" '
'"'-æ ' T '
A - ' ' ' '
'- W- '-
" - T-ï
' á '– -
– '"- "
-" "' ' –-'" H --- æ"
I I'-' ' '" "-" - Y' ' - "
M H M I
' ' H '"'-æ I
I '- -ï
Why Doing Is Better Than Guessing
-
W '- –- ò–
– – –' "'-ä A '" æ-
Innovation Model #1: Big Bets
'' " '– ' - '
T - '- '' ''"' "
''- - - ' -ä
--- ä Y'– - –" " '-'
T ä W- - - ''
- F - –
-–" –- ' –ë W- - " " " -
-
N
W ' '- '
'-' ä W ' - -' -"–ä A
- - - - T
- – '- '- - '" - ROI
- ' ' – '"'á '– " '–"
I
--ä
T '–-- '
T - " '–- A
' "'–-- - "' '–" "ä Y'– "
' á - ' T
– --" '–"
ò" - '"- - - -
'ä
- " '"ä T-
- " - T - " ' '
Innovation Model #2: Learn As You Go
L-ï '' - " ' I- ' " - – ä
"- - A
- ' – -
C S S A R R '-'ä I'W S K IA W Y C L F V C C
Innovation and the Real World " "'- "- - - -
O '–" ' '- SP - "
- –-
T K ' " "-
T –-- '–-'
"The probable '''' R - -" ' ò-
'- ' æ-
is what usually ' ' ''á C" - '
'"--'â -
happens" 'ææ ' - -
"
Aristotle
- - -
'
-
F - "ææ'–æ'
K' I–-" ' -'" ''æ
-' '" – - - '"- '–"
-"
'"-'ï
'æ ''"
TOLERANCE OF FAILURE: Y -
"Reward people
W "'–-
- " ' H '–- ' I according to the
' -
– "- F '' '' value they create
- - "-ä for the
–-'"- -' ' '
organization"
FAST DECISION MAKING: A - "ææ'–æ
'
Charles Koch
' ''"' ' "– '
- T
'"á ''æ' ' - ' '
'–
–"– " á -"- ''"' " '
D" A ' - '
- - –" T – – "
TALENT: W " ' ' ---'' T ''"'
- ' ' - - '' ' ' -
"'–" W ' - - " '''
"
- - "- '"' -
- '
T "ææ'–æ ''"' '
T "ææ - '" '-'T '"' - –-- -"'– -"-
T " "- " á " - '--á
" '– C" '– - - -- your '"-' '-'
-' - "ä A' Bringing Down the' " -ä
House: The Inside Story of Six M.I.T. Students Who Took
A -- '– -' ä
Vegas for Millions ' -- - ''"' '"
ä
During his 15-year tenure with the international
B–- ' - ''"' '" –ëconsul Cting firm Accenture, Stephen Shapiro established
'"-- - - - '-and led a 20,000 person innova tion practice. In 2001 he
- -' '"-' A left Accenture to I ' w– rite his first book, 24/7 Innovation,
C K' ïThe Science of Suc cess, '– which has been featured in Newsweek Investor's
'" - - '"--' - Business Dai ly Entrepreneur Magazine and the New
–- -' – K' I–-Y"ork Táime s. H-e is also the author of Goal-Free Living and
"- '"- '' - ' The Litt- le B B ook of BIG Innovation Ideas. For more
information go to www.24-7Innovation.com.
C S S A R R '-'ä I'
And What You Can Learn From Vegas Card Counters
S S
WHICH WILL HELP YOUR BUSINESS BE MORE The Value of Non-Customers
– --- '-ë O - " "-æ ' - "-
- –"ä
U –" --–-
T '- '–"
-' –-–" ä T ' " "Being normal is
' - - –-'" ' ï not a virtue; it
- - ädenotes a lack of
P"'- - " '–-" V '
O" " courage"
- ' – T "æ
- Anonymous
- æ
- W
I '– - -' - á – --- ä I '– -
–- –- -
-' á – '"'-
- -' -" - ä I '– '–
'' –"- " "' -á '–
Statistics and Incremental Innovation
''''"-–- ò '-' -
B " " – --- -
' " –-" ' - " –-–"ä
T '-' '– "
' ''
'-–'– -–"ä T - - B–æ"
"There are lies,
T' D''"-ï
'"'- -" DVDä
damned lies, and
Competing on Analytics
statistics" O " -æ ' - –" "
- C
Mark Twain - -'' – Y
R-'' M
'"'– - -''
HCRMI -
'' - - ' - Aá
T -- -" '" -
'– " '"' '- -" --- '
--" 'ä B–- '- "– -
'" '"-' B " - "--
' -'ä
''''"-–- ' '-– '-' I
I '– " "– –"á '– " '"'
' ò 'ó '–" ' '–
-" '"- " - –- T
- –-' '–" ' " Q-
'– - -' -" – -á -
' - '"'– - ' -' -"
'-" '--
PC "' -
B " ' '" ''- - "
-" ' YOUR
æ ''–-"ä
T " -
T -
' - -
- - - '–- -
T
- F' – "'–'á
–"á -" "-'
'"'-á
-" - "–
- '-'
–ä S '-- C'' "' I-–- á òF'" "
W '– ' ' '" -' - " '
' ' '"- -- ''
"- ä
C S S A R R '-'ä I'W S K IA W Y C L F V C C
'äó W –" ' –- -' 'ä Y'– - - '–-
B - '- –- 'H M -'ä ' K '"
'"' -I - - -
"Failures are
Probability and Innovation 'æ"á 'æ '
valuable negative
I --- æ" '-' ' ''"- '- '" á
information"
'
B ' - Dr. Robert Goddard
P- - -- "- "– -
- I - - -– – H I -
T ' ' ' " "- -- ' ' '"'ä B–- '– " '- -
– '–- " -' - '–ä T '– ' -
- ' M H K I - –"- --
B–- ' '– '" - -'–- – -
'–" '"- '-- -–"ële arnT Y ' - ' - '"' - '
ä Y'– ' - '-" M H" M "
as you goä T " '–- -'ä
'"' -Iä O - á '– -- "
L '-" --- æ" '
'"'-æ ' T '
A - ' ' ' '
'- W- '-
" - T-ï
' á '– -
– '"- "
-" "' ' –-'" H --- æ"
I I'-' ' '" "-" - Y' ' - "
M H M I
' ' H '"'-æ I
I '- -ï
Why Doing Is Better Than Guessing
-
W '- –- ò–
– – –' "'-ä A '" æ-
Innovation Model #1: Big Bets
'' " '– ' - '
T - '- '' ''"' "
''- - - ' -ä
--- ä Y'– - –" " '-'
T ä W- - - ''
- F - –
-–" –- ' –ë W- - " " " -
-
N
W ' '- '
'-' ä W ' - -' -"–ä A
- - - - T
- – '- '- - '" - ROI
- ' ' – '"'á '– " '–"
I
--ä
T '–-- '
T - " '–- A
' "'–-- - "' '–" "ä Y'– "
' á - ' T
– --" '–"
ò" - '"- - - -
'ä
- " '"ä T-
- " - T - " ' '
Innovation Model #2: Learn As You Go
L-ï '' - " ' I- ' " - – ä
"- - A
- ' – -
C S S A R R '-'ä I'W S K IA W Y C L F V C C
Innovation and the Real World " "'- "- - - -
O '–" ' '- SP - "
- –-
T K ' " "-
T –-- '–-'
"The probable '''' R - -" ' ò-
'- ' æ-
is what usually ' ' ''á C" - '
'"--'â -
happens" 'ææ ' - -
"
Aristotle
- - -
'
-
F - "ææ'–æ'
K' I–-" ' -'" ''æ
-' '" – - - '"- '–"
-"
'"-'ï
'æ ''"
TOLERANCE OF FAILURE: Y -
"Reward people
W "'–-
- " ' H '–- ' I according to the
' -
– "- F '' '' value they create
- - "-ä for the
–-'"- -' ' '
organization"
FAST DECISION MAKING: A - "ææ'–æ
'
Charles Koch
' ''"' ' "– '
- T
'"á ''æ' ' - ' '
'–
–"– " á -"- ''"' " '
D" A ' - '
- - –" T – – "
TALENT: W " ' ' ---'' T ''"'
- ' ' - - '' ' ' -
"'–" W ' - - " '''
"
- - "- '"' -
- '
T "ææ'–æ ''"' '
T "ææ - '" '-'T '"' - –-- -"'– -"-
T " "- " á " - '--á
" '– C" '– - - -- your '"-' '-'
-' - "ä A' Bringing Down the' " -ä
House: The Inside Story of Six M.I.T. Students Who Took
A -- '– -' ä
Vegas for Millions ' -- - ''"' '"
ä
During his 15-year tenure with the international
B–- ' - ''"' '" –ëconsul Cting firm Accenture, Stephen Shapiro established
'"-- - - - '-and led a 20,000 person innova tion practice. In 2001 he
- -' '"-' A left Accenture to I ' w– rite his first book, 24/7 Innovation,
C K' ïThe Science of Suc cess, '– which has been featured in Newsweek Investor's
'" - - '"--' - Business Dai ly Entrepreneur Magazine and the New
–- -' – K' I–-Y"ork Táime s. H-e is also the author of Goal-Free Living and
"- '"- '' - ' The Litt- le B B ook of BIG Innovation Ideas. For more
information go to www.24-7Innovation.com.
C S S A R R '-'ä I'
