future web trends
innovation series 2007 with jimmy wales
#
Matthew Buckland
www.matthewbuckland.com
GM: New Media, M&G Online
IMG SRC: Flickrthe thing about
# predictions...
IMG SRC: Flickr"Computers in the future
may weigh no more than
# 1.5 tons."
Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless
march of science, 1949"I think there is a world
market for maybe five
# computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943"640K ought to be enough
for anybody."
# Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal"There is no reason anyone
would want a computer in
#
their home."
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of
Digital Equipment Corp., 1977internet
#
connectivity
Dirt cheap, lightening fast & "always on" internet
Computers light, dumb terminals: need net connection to work
Most applications web-based for best efficiency
IMG SRC: Flickrall digital devices will be
# connected & networked
From your car, radio, phone, fridge... "always on"
An unconnected digital device will be a strange thing
WiMax connected sunglasses with voice prompted HUD?rise of the
#
mobile internet
Rapid improvements in connectivity & screens
Mobile to be dominant platform for connecting to net worldwide
Japan: happened already (mostly surf web through phones)
Voice calls powered by internet & SMS/Texts -> IM
Cellphones electronic wallets & banks = main method of payment
Citizens vote for first time in elections via mobile phones?rise of individual
#
& entrepreneur
Open source = unprecedented access to code & applications
Cheap to create business online & make own media
Teenager in basement same opp. as worker in big company
EXAMPLE: New mobile operating system (Android)?strides against digital
#
divide
Developing world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phones
Also become part of economy via cellphone wallet
Mobile phones cheap & broadband ubiquitous
Illiteracy issues overcome by video & audio streams
Creates new areas of collaboration and educationalmost no privacy
#
on the web
Your data will be out there
It will be ok because everyone will be in the same boat
Seeing already with soc. networking services like FBthe rise of the
#
virtual universe
Virtual worlds like Second life go mainstream
Come to fore as graphic cards & broadband improve
Potentially a visual alternative to the world wide web
Standards: different worlds connect to each other seamlessly
Virtual coup d'etat by SL citizens?
Linden Labs cedes SL to democratically elected virtual govtinformation pollution &
#
overload
Next big challenge is how to manage masses of information
People will complain about "digital fatigue" & digital noise
Focus on developing filters & aggregators
"Switch-off" holidays regularly prescribed by your doctor
Rise of anti-digital movements urging "get back to basics"
In response to clutter, a second world wide web announcedmore googles
#
& facebooks
Google & Facebook finally get good competition
Microsoft releases OS code and goes open source
MS makes revenue by selling advertising & giving support
Advertising is main bus. model (connecting sellers & buyers)
Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop, with MS influencedecline of the
#
nation state?
Govt has less influence & control than ever before
Technologies threaten existing power & economic relationships
Also: music industry has resisted digital audio and Napster
But oppressive regimes clamp down on internet
Some countries regress into dark ages...and media?
#MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
media distribution
#
& production
All media eventually delivered via internet
Hardly any specialist print, tv, radio media companies left
All fully converged, broadcasting & publishing via the net
Media on many digital platformsMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
fragmented media
#
environment
Non-media players become de facto media companies
Media world filled with new competitors
Cellphone operators, handset makers -> media companies
Vodacom stop aggregating, start producing own content
Operators already big media companies (Voda: 1,4m users)
Battle between media & cellphone companies loomingMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
now everyone is a
#
media player
Barrier to entry drops even more dramatically
Rise of the reader and the consumer
Readers: publishers, broadcasters: competitors & collaborators
Small, converged media challenge media conglomeratesMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
role of media changes
#
Also content aggregators, facilitators
Business model: capture audience via all means
Media companies look to own channels: deals for own phones?
Content portals -> web applications & services
Social networks as well as content hubsMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
is this the
#
end of print?
Books, newspapers magazines...
Read on flexible digital boards, always connected
Websites & digital newspapers become "same thing"
Newspapers smaller & niched, but not extinct
Newspapers become expensive, luxury items
A lifestyle item: buying an "experience", part of "offtime"#
IMG SRC: WAN...other developments
#other trends for
#
now & the future
Semantic web entrenched
Artificial intelligence
Attention economy in full swing
Sophisticated personalisation of content
Location-based/mapping services common & mobile
Virtualisation eg: Amazon's EC2 & S3 services
Web 14.0???... ;-)
SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blogForget capitalism and the class struggle... the
# digital revolution is changing things far more
dramatically than the hypemongers ever
imagined... the move from a society dominated
by print and broadcast mass media to the age of
interactivity is at least as dramatic as the move
from feudalism to capitalism.
Netocracy, by Jan Söderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001)
IMG SRC: Flickr#
Driven by internet and mobile communications,
networks are turning into the major means of
doing business... Simply put, networks will make
the world go round. So controlling the networks
of this world will soon count for more than
controlling the capital.
Netocracy, by Jan Söderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001)thank you & questions
#
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